Upwelling Capital White Paper Analyzes Tail‑End PE Fund Performance

Preqin has estimated that there is about $525 billion in unrealized value held in private funds that are more than ten years old, most of which are PE funds. As secondary sales of private fund interests become easier and more common, private fund investors may have to choose either holding a PE investment until the fund’s final dissolution or selling it at a discount on the secondary market. See “An Insider’s Perspective on the Evolution of the PE Secondary Market” (May 14, 2019). To inform investors’ decision making, Upwelling Capital Group LLC (Upwelling) analyzed how U.S. PE firms performed after their first ten years, which Upwelling referred to as “tail-end” years. Upwelling then used that data to evaluate when investors might be better off selling tail-end fund interests, even at a steep discount, and reinvesting the proceeds in a different fund. This article summarizes Upwelling’s recent white paper on the subject. For a recent look at PE investor sentiment, see “Investor Survey Finds Growing Interest in Private Market Vehicles, Lower Return Expectations and Continuing Fee Pressures” (Feb. 7, 2019).

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